If you could get it hooked up to a diagnostic, it will show up any registered trouble codes. I'm assuming your dash cluster hasn't thrown up any errors here.
What does the dash read when you first turn the key? 1098 RACING? This will give an indication of the map installed. The updated ecu reads 1098 RACING EVO which came in from '08 on. My original map read the same sans the EVO. When I had a look at the fuel mapping of the original map it looked like a dogs breakfast. I was amazed it even ran.
Yes I agree that there could be some flash from the fuel, but that's dependant also on air fuel mixture. If valves aren't timed right, that ratio will be effected. No amount of good spark will ignited a flooded chamber. For combustion you need 3 elements. Heat, fuel and air and these need to be at the right ratio for ignition to occur. I guess, double check connection, test coil resistance, hey see what happens if you swap the coils. Does the problem shift to the horizontal cylinder?
Feel your pain mate, I was tearing my hair out during my diagnosis.
I'm still leaning towards checking the timing belt, which most owners can do at home.
It's not intended as a slight against whomever last changed the belts either. Shit happens through no fault of anyone, bad belt, tensioner issues, etc.